Experts from the Transdisciplinary Studies Center of Central America (Cetcam) in Costa Rica state that the government of Nicaragua, led by spouses and co-presidents Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo, might seek negotiations with the United States following the fall of their Venezuelan counterpart and ally, Nicolás Maduro.
The appointment of Nicaraguan Foreign Minister Denis Moncada as chargé d'affaires in Washington "is interpreted as an attempt by the Ortega-Murillo administration to open a channel of communication with the United States," the Cetcam report notes. This think tank, composed of Central American researchers from various disciplines, observes that the immediate reaction of Ortega and Murillo to Maduro's downfall was "unusually restrained, avoiding direct allusions to the United States."
There are also indications of having open communication channels that could eventually lead to negotiations, if they are not already happening. Another factor that could open the door to negotiations, according to the report, is that while Nicaragua does not carry the same geopolitical, economic, and symbolic weight as Venezuela, Ortega and Murillo have realized that their main allies, China and Russia, did nothing for Maduro, their partner, making it even less likely they would do so for them.
Thus, for Cetcam, the Sandinista executive "faces the dilemma of choosing between clinging to its supposed anti-imperialism to stay in power at any cost, even if this means exposing itself to greater pressure from Washington," or "seeking a gradual opening to remain in power without risking its vital interests," by negotiating with the government of Donald Trump.
In the current scenario, it is likely that U.S. pressure on the Nicaraguan government will increase, the study says. In this context, it is noted that midterm elections for Congress are scheduled for this year, in a context where Republicans have lost two key races in the mayoralties of New York and Miami; "so that Trump and several of his close collaborators, such as Marco Rubio, need to position themselves better by showcasing concrete achievements to keep their continuity aspirations alive."
While Venezuela is a "major piece," everything indicates that they are seeking other "achievements" in Latin America, and in this framework, "Nicaragua appears as an easy link," according to this analysis. Faced with that possibility, the study suggests that the political and economic interests of different government sectors, such as the military high command, Sandinist businessmen, and close associates, or "simple political survival interests," could align to "promote a pragmatic solution with a managed succession without Rosario Murillo."
Another possibility is that Murillo herself, very much against her will, might submit to Washington's conditions in order to maintain control of the power structure, just as happened in Venezuela, Cetcam assesses.
